The Blockbuster Paradox
Do mega-hits produce fewer namesakes than moderately popular films? Hill-curve saturation modeling on the cultural-event panel.
5.8 The Blockbuster Paradox in Hill-Curve Form
Exposure measure: revenue
Standard Hill curve: E_max = 0.0000 (SE 0.0000), EC50 = 295038508.00 (SE 575816382.71), h = 1.00 (SE 1.32), R^2 = -11.921, n = 41
Hill + reactance: gamma = 0.000001 (SE 0.000001), R^2 = 0.096. Blockbuster Paradox: not confirmed
The reactance term was not statistically significant. While the Hill curve shows diminishing returns (h < 1 would indicate concavity), there is no evidence of a reversal at high exposure levels. The Blockbuster Paradox is not supported in this sample.
Exposure measure: spike_magnitude
Standard Hill curve: E_max = 0.0000 (SE 0.0000), EC50 = 4198.27 (SE 31728.48), h = 0.58 (SE 0.59), R^2 = -0.529, n = 200
Hill + reactance: gamma = 0.000000 (SE 0.000000), R^2 = 0.008. Blockbuster Paradox: not confirmed
The reactance term was not statistically significant. While the Hill curve shows diminishing returns (h < 1 would indicate concavity), there is no evidence of a reversal at high exposure levels. The Blockbuster Paradox is not supported in this sample.
Exposure measure: vote_count
Standard Hill curve: E_max = 0.0000 (SE 0.0000), EC50 = 7056.00 (SE 12836.44), h = 1.00 (SE 0.93), R^2 = -8.626, n = 53
Hill + reactance: gamma = 0.000000 (SE 0.000001), R^2 = 0.063. Blockbuster Paradox: not confirmed
The reactance term was not statistically significant. While the Hill curve shows diminishing returns (h < 1 would indicate concavity), there is no evidence of a reversal at high exposure levels. The Blockbuster Paradox is not supported in this sample.
Analysis based on 200 cultural events, 41 with box office revenue data.