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Geographic Diffusion and Moran's I

Spatial autocorrelation of naming patterns across U.S. states, 1960–2024.

By Namesake ResearchApril 13, 2026

5.10 Geographic Diffusion and Moran's I

Spatial Autocorrelation Over Time

Mean Moran's I across 65 years (1960-2024) for top 200 names:

DecadeMean Moran's IInterpretation
1960s0.5149positive autocorrelation
1970s0.4569positive autocorrelation
1980s0.4353positive autocorrelation
1990s0.4076positive autocorrelation
2000s0.3761positive autocorrelation
2010s0.3226positive autocorrelation
2020s0.2676positive autocorrelation

Pre-streaming mean I: 0.4285, Post-streaming mean I: 0.2906. Spatial autocorrelation has decreased in the streaming era, consistent with more uniform national exposure displacing regional diffusion patterns.

Event Diffusion Velocity

Analyzed 11 top events:

  • First adopter was coastal: 100% of events
  • First adopter was top media market: 100% of events
  • Mean states adopting within 3 years: 21.6

Coastal vs Interior Adoption

Coastal states mean change: 4.30 (n=1260) Interior states mean change: 1.54 (n=1285) t=2.07, p=0.0390

Significant coastal advantage in cultural name adoption.