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Phonetic Spillover Analysis

Phase 6: phonetic neighborhood cross-correlation, clusters, Granger tests, and spillover magnitudes vs SSA panel.

By Mike WestApril 10, 2026

Phase 6 — Phonetic Spillover Analysis

Generated: 2026-04-12 00:48 UTC Sources: `phonetic_spillover_results.parquet`, `phonetic_clusters.parquet`, `.phase6_checkpoint.json` (random control + Welch test).

Key Findings

  • **Phonetic pairs (rows):** 166,046
  • **Mean cross-correlation (phonetic pairs):** 0.183707
  • **Median cross-correlation (phonetic pairs):** 0.348612
  • **Mean cross-correlation (random control, n=1000):** 0.065518
  • **Welch t-statistic (phonetic vs random):** 7.207297
  • **p-value (two-sided):** 1.11359e-12
  • **Clusters:** 1,221

Classification Breakdown (table)

Pairwise correlation summary

MetricValue
Phonetic pairs166,046
Mean \cross-correlation\(phonetic)0.183707
Median (phonetic)0.348612
Mean (random control)0.065518
Welch t7.207297
p-value1.11359e-12

Top 5 clusters by avg_correlation

cluster_namesizeavg_correlation
Idamae30.966704
Ayako30.955235
Buford30.938512
Jerad30.929772
Adolphus30.928625

Methodology Notes

  • **phonetic_spillover_results.parquet** columns: `name_a`, `name_b`, `edge_weight`, `cross_correlation`, `optimal_lag`, `granger_p_value`, `spillover_magnitude`.
  • **phonetic_clusters.parquet** columns: `cluster_id`, `cluster_name`, `member_names`, `size`, `avg_correlation`, `leader_name`, `leader_peak_year`.
  • **Welch t-test:** uses stored `control_corrs` and `t_test` from `.phase6_checkpoint.json` when present; otherwise recomputed from control correlations and phonetic-pair `cross_correlation`.