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Phonetic Spillover Analysis
Phase 6: phonetic neighborhood cross-correlation, clusters, Granger tests, and spillover magnitudes vs SSA panel.
By Mike WestApril 10, 2026
Phase 6 — Phonetic Spillover Analysis
Generated: 2026-04-12 00:48 UTC Sources: `phonetic_spillover_results.parquet`, `phonetic_clusters.parquet`, `.phase6_checkpoint.json` (random control + Welch test).
Key Findings
- •**Phonetic pairs (rows):** 166,046
- •**Mean cross-correlation (phonetic pairs):** 0.183707
- •**Median cross-correlation (phonetic pairs):** 0.348612
- •**Mean cross-correlation (random control, n=1000):** 0.065518
- •**Welch t-statistic (phonetic vs random):** 7.207297
- •**p-value (two-sided):** 1.11359e-12
- •**Clusters:** 1,221
Classification Breakdown (table)
Pairwise correlation summary
| Metric | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Phonetic pairs | 166,046 | ||
| Mean \ | cross-correlation\ | (phonetic) | 0.183707 |
| Median (phonetic) | 0.348612 | ||
| Mean (random control) | 0.065518 | ||
| Welch t | 7.207297 | ||
| p-value | 1.11359e-12 |
Top 5 clusters by avg_correlation
| cluster_name | size | avg_correlation |
|---|---|---|
| Idamae | 3 | 0.966704 |
| Ayako | 3 | 0.955235 |
| Buford | 3 | 0.938512 |
| Jerad | 3 | 0.929772 |
| Adolphus | 3 | 0.928625 |
Methodology Notes
- •**phonetic_spillover_results.parquet** columns: `name_a`, `name_b`, `edge_weight`, `cross_correlation`, `optimal_lag`, `granger_p_value`, `spillover_magnitude`.
- •**phonetic_clusters.parquet** columns: `cluster_id`, `cluster_name`, `member_names`, `size`, `avg_correlation`, `leader_name`, `leader_peak_year`.
- •**Welch t-test:** uses stored `control_corrs` and `t_test` from `.phase6_checkpoint.json` when present; otherwise recomputed from control correlations and phonetic-pair `cross_correlation`.