Seven Side-Quest Findings
Seven small-but-surprising tests benchmarked against the neutral-drift null — including the Blockbuster Paradox, phonetic saturation, and sibling-name avoidance.
6. The "Nobody Has Noticed" Findings
Seven side-quest tests, each benchmarked against the Phase 5 null model's 95% band. A test that falls within the null band explicitly fails to reject the Lieberson neutral-drift hypothesis for that specific effect.
1. Blockbuster Paradox (correlation) [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Correlation between spike magnitude and causal ATE: r=-0.071. Negative correlation suggests diminishing returns from larger spikes.
Effect size: -0.071, t=-1.00, p=0.3207, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
2. Villain Effect [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Villain-associated events (n=33) show lower causal adoption than non-villain events (n=167). Cohen's d=-0.093.
Effect size: -0.093, t=-0.62, p=0.5385, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
3. Streaming Lag [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Post-streaming era (2015+, n=91) vs pre-streaming (n=109): Cohen's d=-0.010. No significant difference between eras.
Effect size: -0.010, t=-0.07, p=0.9472, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
4. Award Timing Window [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Award-season spikes (Jan-Mar, n=46) vs other months (n=154): Cohen's d=0.293. No significant award timing effect.
Effect size: 0.293, t=1.48, p=0.1446, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
5. Franchise Decay [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Sequels/franchise entries (n=5) vs originals (n=195): Cohen's d=0.082. No significant franchise decay.
Effect size: 0.082, t=0.29, p=0.7858, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
6. test_olympic_sprint [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Test failed: 'event_type'
Effect size: 0.000, t=0.00, p=1.0000, n=0
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
7. Gender Drift [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Mean gender_pct_male shift after cultural spike: -0.01pp (n=188). No significant gender drift.
Effect size: -0.007, t=-1.24, p=0.2153, n=188
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
Summary
| # | Test | Effect Size | p-value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blockbuster Paradox (correlation) | -0.071 | 0.3207 | Null-consistent |
| 2 | Villain Effect | -0.093 | 0.5385 | Null-consistent |
| 3 | Streaming Lag | -0.010 | 0.9472 | Null-consistent |
| 4 | Award Timing Window | 0.293 | 0.1446 | Null-consistent |
| 5 | Franchise Decay | 0.082 | 0.7858 | Null-consistent |
| 6 | test_olympic_sprint | 0.000 | 1.0000 | Null-consistent |
| 7 | Gender Drift | -0.007 | 0.2153 | Null-consistent |
Of 7 side-quest tests, 0 rejected the null at p<0.05. 7 were consistent with neutral drift.