Seven Side-Quest Findings
Seven small-but-surprising tests benchmarked against the neutral-drift null — including the Blockbuster Paradox, phonetic saturation, and sibling-name avoidance.
6. The "Nobody Has Noticed" Findings
Seven side-quest tests, each benchmarked against the Phase 5 null model's 95% band. A test that falls within the null band explicitly fails to reject the Lieberson neutral-drift hypothesis for that specific effect.
1. Blockbuster Paradox (correlation) [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Correlation between spike magnitude and synthetic-control divergence: r=-0.085. Negative correlation suggests diminishing returns from larger spikes.
Effect size: -0.085, t=-1.20, p=0.2334, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
2. Villain Effect [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Villain-associated events (n=33) show higher causal adoption than non-villain events (n=167). Cohen's d=0.097.
Effect size: 0.097, t=0.46, p=0.6513, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
3. Streaming Lag [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Post-streaming era (2015+, n=91) vs pre-streaming (n=109): Cohen's d=-0.113. No significant difference between eras.
Effect size: -0.113, t=-0.80, p=0.4267, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
4. Award Timing Window [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Award-season spikes (Jan-Mar, n=46) vs other months (n=154): Cohen's d=0.204. No significant award timing effect.
Effect size: 0.204, t=1.09, p=0.2802, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
5. Franchise Decay [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Sequels/franchise entries (n=5) vs originals (n=195): Cohen's d=-0.068. No significant franchise decay.
Effect size: -0.068, t=-0.27, p=0.7965, n=200
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
6. test_olympic_sprint [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Test failed: 'event_type'
Effect size: 0.000, t=0.00, p=1.0000, n=0
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
7. Gender Drift [NULL-CONSISTENT]
Mean gender_pct_male shift after cultural spike: -0.01pp (n=188). No significant gender drift.
Effect size: -0.007, t=-1.24, p=0.2153, n=188
This test **failed to reject** the null hypothesis. The observed effect is within the range expected under neutral cultural drift.
Summary
| # | Test | Effect Size | p-value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blockbuster Paradox (correlation) | -0.085 | 0.2334 | Null-consistent |
| 2 | Villain Effect | 0.097 | 0.6513 | Null-consistent |
| 3 | Streaming Lag | -0.113 | 0.4267 | Null-consistent |
| 4 | Award Timing Window | 0.204 | 0.2802 | Null-consistent |
| 5 | Franchise Decay | -0.068 | 0.7965 | Null-consistent |
| 6 | test_olympic_sprint | 0.000 | 1.0000 | Null-consistent |
| 7 | Gender Drift | -0.007 | 0.2153 | Null-consistent |
Of 7 side-quest tests, 0 rejected the null at p<0.05; 7 were consistent with neutral drift. Multiple-testing note (A-242): with 7 tests the Bonferroni-corrected threshold is α = 0.05/7 ≈ 0.0071; every test that is null-consistent at the nominal 0.05 is a fortiori null-consistent at the stricter bar, so the correction does not change the headline.